The logic behind why two World Cup teams might not actually want to win their final group stage games
Spain’s 1-0 win on Friday night perhaps put a damper on a couple of teams’ World Cup plans.
The victory over Uruguay gave Spain the Group H title, meaning it will play the winner of the final group stage match between Austria and Algeria on Saturday night.
Spain is a soccer powerhouse, ranking as the third-best FIFA program in the world, and it would be a heavy favorite over both Austria (22nd) and Algeria (29th).
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That’s why both teams might actually benefit from not winning Saturday night.
We have already mentioned that Spain will face the winner of the match as Group J runners-up. So, for Algeria, a tie is easily its best-case scenario.
With a tie, Algeria would clinch a spot in the knockout round as a third-place finisher in Group J and face either Belgium, Switzerland, England or Ghana. However, a loss spells almost certain elimination, so it must tread lightly.
Its path will be much clearer when it takes the pitch at 10 p.m. ET in Kansas City, but for now, The Athletic gives Algeria less than a 1% chance of advancing with a loss. If prior games go in its favor ahead of time, the likelihood jumps only to 9%.
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Austria’s situation is a bit different, as a loss does not totally kill it. But since a win or tie means facing Spain, it might just be hoping for a loss and advancing through tiebreakers, which, again, will become more clear as the day goes on.
At the time of publishing, Austria has a 38% chance of advancing with a loss. That percentage would go to 65% with a Ghana victory at 5 p.m. ET, and then 72% with an Uzbekistan win or draw against D.R. Congo at 7:30 p.m. ET.
However, if Ghana loses or ties to Croatia, and then D.R. Congo wins, Austria would be eliminated with a loss. So, it would have to accept its fate, try to win or tie and worry about Spain later.
The quick recap: Algeria wants to tie because a win means facing Spain, and a loss all but equals elimination. Austria may have to reluctantly face the music rather than rely on tiebreakers, but its true rooting interest, and perhaps effort level for the game, will be known by 10 p.m. ET.
All of this is to say — Algeria purposely scoring an own goal late to benefit itself may not be out of the question.
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