Why the under is the play as Trevor Rogers and Tarik Skubal face off in Baltimore-Detroit matchup
The trade deadline is looming, but that doesn’t mean we are going to take our foot off the gas. I did mention it is smart to lower your unit size a bit on some of the baseball bets for the next couple of weeks, and I stand by that. You never know who will be part of a blockbuster trade, and you don’t want your money tied up into something that isn’t all that predictable. There isn’t a bigger name available than the guy who is making a start today as the Orioles take on the Tigers.
The Baltimore Orioles season hasn’t exactly gone to plan. They added Pete Alonso, and he has been a rewarding free agent, but the team is still hitting just .237 for the season. The pitching staff has a 4.21 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. In the ultra-competitive American League East, there just isn’t much room for error. They enter today’s contest with a 52-56 record, which isn’t terrible, but does probably put them in the seller conversation more than the buyer’s room.
There is a lot of talent on the Orioles, but you have to wonder how they adjust for not only the remainder of this year, but next year too. They need help in the rotation, but their bullpen, a strength for so long, has actually been very good for the last couple of months. Maybe that’s something to hang their hats on. Trevor Rogers takes the hill today with a 6-7 record, a 4.17 ERA, and a 1.27 WHIP. He’s been fine, but nothing special. He has been better on the road than at home, with a 3.72 road ERA, and he has been great the past two months with just 11 earned runs allowed in 55 innings. Tigers hitters are batting .270 against him in 37 at-bats.
The Detroit Tigers are at a significant crossroads, and they also did not have this season go the way they intended. They will have plenty of people calling about a variety of their players. Their offense seems to have improved from last year, and their pitching looks about the same, but they haven’t progressed from the slump they had to close last season. They are six games under .500 for the year and haven’t played very well on the road this year.
As mentioned, no one will garner more attention than the man who takes the mound today for Detroit, Tarik Skubal. If you follow baseball at all, you know he is in the prime of his career, about to be a free agent, and has won the past two Cy Young awards. His numbers are still strong this year despite missing some time with injury. He is 7-5 with a 2.70 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. He has been worse at home than on the road with a 3.46 home ERA. He has been his typical dominant self in July with a 1.48 ERA this month.
You do have to wonder if this is the last start that Skubal will make for the Tigers. If they don’t trade him, they will let him walk for nothing as they are likely very far apart on a contract. Starters like this don’t come around often, and the return has to make it worthwhile even if the Tigers still think they can make the postseason without him this year.
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For today’s game, the bet is to play the under. There isn’t a ton of room for error here with it being at 7.5, but I could see Rogers and Skubal posting seven scoreless innings each. Rogers has been locked in lately, and Skubal is, well, the best pitcher in baseball. I also think the Orioles bullpen will help with the score staying low. This game is much more likely to be a 2-1 game than it is to see eight runs.
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