San Diego Padres favored over Giants as Robbie Ray likely makes final start before trade deadline

It is hard to believe we are almost at August. This is where we will start seeing some separation of teams that are truly playoff contenders and those that are going to start looking at next year. We know the trade deadline is in just a few days, so that will be the first indication of who is giving up and who wants to advance. We have one team that will certainly sell – the Giants – taking on a team that might sell or might buy – the Padres.

The San Francisco Giants haven’t had really anything go the way they wanted this season. Despite making some good additions and having some very good players on the roster, they just can’t seem to make this team work. It is a bit crazy because the team is hitting with a .254 batting average, good for sixth in the league. They just aren’t scoring many runs. They are 21st in the league at 457. Their slugging percentage is among the best in baseball, but their on-base percentage is 23rd. It just really doesn’t make much sense.

Their pitching does have some issues, and they have a collective 4.36 ERA. Their bullpen struggles and is in the bottom third of the league with a 4.37 ERA. However, they’ve had some decent bright spots with people like today’s starter Robbie Ray. Despite all the trade rumors around him, Ray is having a solid season with a 9-6 record and a 3.16 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. He has struggled away from San Francisco with a 4.35 road ERA compared to just 2.22 at home. He hasn’t faced the Padres this season, but he hasn’t done great against them, either. Collectively, San Diego hitters are hitting .273 in 110 at-bats against him.

The San Diego Padres are still a winning team, but they are also frustrating because their lineup should be resulting in much better outcomes. The Padres are 55-53 overall, but with all of the names on this team, you have to think they are underperforming. Their struggles are a bit more obvious. Two of their most important pieces are having down years. Manny Machado is finally batting over .200, and Fernando Tatis Jr. has just eight homers. It also doesn’t help that a guy like Xander Bogaerts is hitting only .218 as well. Injuries have been an issue, but the team hasn’t hit the way they are capable of doing.

If the Padres can turn it on for the final two months, they should have most of the pieces needed to battle a team like the Dodgers. The problem is that it seems like this team will limp its way to the finish line this season. The starter for tonight’s game is JP Sears, who has a 3.86 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Sears has only made six appearances and five starts this year, highlighting the injury issues on the team. Sears has not thrown more than five innings in a start this month, but the Padres bullpen is one of the better in the league.

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This is probably the last start that Ray will make for the Giants. I have to imagine they ship him off to a contender. Sears has looked pretty good in his few outings, but I think the team knows to get him through the opposing lineup twice and get him out of the game. I don’t have a great feel for the total as I think both teams could put up runs or be stifled by their opponent. I’m taking the Padres on the run line; I think they are the better team, have the better bullpen, and Ray has struggled on the road. Give me the Padres -1.5 at +139.

(Note: The Padres are -157 on the moneyline, I try to not give out a bet higher than -140, but if you’re more comfortable with just betting on the Padres winning, go for it.)

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